Providence, R.I. -- The Rhode Island Department of Revenue (DOR) today released its FY 2021 Revenue Assessment Report for November 2020.
The Revenue Assessment Report, which is issued on a monthly basis, compares the adjusted general revenues by revenue source on a fiscal year-to-date and monthly basis to expected general revenues by revenue source. Expected general revenues are estimated by the DOR's Office of Revenue Analysis from the revised FY 2021 revenue estimates adopted at the November 2020 Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). The methodology underlying the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimates is contained in the report.
The principals of the November 2020 REC revised FY 2021 total general revenues up by $330.6 million, with nearly all revenue items experiencing an upward revision. Details on the impact of the November 2020 REC by general revenue item can be found in the November 2020 Revenue Estimating Conference Report when it is published on the Office of Management and Budget's website.
November Year-To-Date Performance On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the November 2020 report shows that adjusted total general revenues are ahead of expected total general revenues, based on the revised FY 2021 revenue estimates adopted at the November 2020 REC and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, with adjusted total general revenues $29.2 million more than expected total general revenues, a variance of 1.9%. The strongest driver of this outperformance are personal income tax revenues which are up $22.3 million, or 4.0%, over expectations. Adjusted excise taxes revenues, including sales and use taxes, for the fiscal year-to-date through November are $6.6 million more than expected, a variance of 1.0%. General business taxes adjusted revenues are $1.4 million behind the estimate, or 1.1%, while other taxes revenues are $4.5 million less than expected, a variance of 14.9%, and departmental receipts adjusted revenues are $4.8 million above expectations, or 6.3% on a fiscal year-to-date basis. Finally, the lottery transfer through November is $1.4 million greater than expectations, a 1.6% difference.
Regarding the November year-to-date performance, Acting Director of Revenue James E. Thorsen made the following observations: • Fiscal year-to-date adjusted total general revenues through November are $29.2 million ahead of expectations based on the FY 2021 revised estimates adopted at the November 2020 REC, a variance of 1.9%. • Adjusted personal income tax revenues through November are $22.3 million above the estimate, a variance of 4.0%, led by strong personal income tax withholding payment revenues which are $14.7 million above expectations and may have benefitted from the $600 per week enhanced unemployment benefits received in July 2020 and the $300 per week enhanced unemployment benefits paid in September. The FY 2021 estimate for personal income tax withholding revenues was increased by $71.5 million at the November 2020 REC. Personal income tax adjusted estimated payments tax revenues exceeded expectations based on the revised estimates adopted at the November 2020 REC by $2.0 million or 2.6%. The FY 2021 estimate for personal income tax estimated payments revenues was increased by $41.6 million at the November 2020 REC, including $29.0 million of payments received in July that were accrued back to FY 2020.
Adjusted fiscal year-to-date personal income tax final payments revenues are ahead of revised expectations by $2.1 million or 4.4%. The FY 2021 estimate for personal income tax final payments revenues was increased by $170.2 million at the November 2020 REC, including $150.4 million of payments received in July that were accrued back to FY 2020. Personal income tax refunds and adjustments revenues were less than the revised estimate in FY 2021 through November by $3.5 million or 5.9%. The FY 2021 estimate for personal income tax refunds and adjustments revenues was increased by $22.0 million at the November 2020 REC, including $19.3 million of disbursements made in July that were accrued back to FY 2020. • FY 2021 year-to-date adjusted sales and use tax revenues through November were ahead of expectations by $6.3 million, or 1.1%. The FY 2021 estimate for sales and use tax revenues was increased by $103.7 million at the November 2020 REC. Fiscal year-to-date through November sales and use tax revenues generally reflect June through October 2020 sales activity. • Adjusted departmental receipts revenues through November are 6.3% above expectations, or $4.8 million, based on the revised FY 2021 estimate adopted at the November 2020 REC. The principals of the November 2020 REC revised FY 2021 departmental receipts down by $13.0 million. • The lottery transfer through November is above revised expectations by $1.4 million, a variance of 1.6%. The FY 2021 estimate for the lottery transfer was revised up by $7.3 million at the November 2020 REC. • Fiscal year-to-date through November estate and transfer tax revenues are $4.0 million less than the revised estimate, a variance of 18.5%. The estimate of estate and transfer tax revenues for FY 2021 was increased by $13.2 million by the principals of the November 2020 REC.
November Monthly Performance. For the month of November, the report indicates that adjusted total general revenues were also $29.2 million above expectations for the month or a variance of 11.0%. The change in methodology employed by ORA post the November Revenue Estimating Conference effectively makes November the first month of the November 2020 through April 2021 reporting period so the nominal differences for the monthly revenues are the same as the nominal differences for the fiscal year-to-date revenues. The variances, however, will be larger for the monthly revenues due to the smaller base from which the nominal differences are measured.
The entire report can be found on the Department of Revenue's web site at http://www.dor.ri.gov/revenue-analysis/2021.php.
Questions or comments on the report should be directed to Paul Grimaldi, Chief of Information and Public Relations by e-mail at paul.grimaldi@revenue.ri.gov or by phone at (401) 378-1080.